Baller Mind Frame

Steve’s Weekly NFL Bettor’s Guide: Week 6

Image courtesy of Keith Allison/Flickr.

Image courtesy of Keith Allison/Flickr.

So it turns out the New England Patriots are not a complete failure of a team and may actually not be looking to get rid of Tom Brady because he is breaking down. A 43-17 win in primetime over a top team can usually fix most problems.

The media simply love to latch on to stories in the NFL and create their own angles. This view of mine comes after seeing Gone Girlor as I like to call it, Don’t Get Married, Ever.

Last week also saw the Jacksonville Jaguars get blown out, even with the spread, while the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were able to cover a double-digit spread. Remember, unless it is the Jaguars or the Oakland Raiders, it is usually wise to avoid those double-digit spreads. (Obligatory apology to those in Jacksonville and Oakland.)

The Dallas Cowboys are 4-1 but come in as eight-point underdogs against the Seattle Seahawks, which is surprising given Seattle’s close game against the Washington Redskins on Monday Night Football. While it is in front of the 12th man, I would not shy away from taking Dallas in this one. Tony Romo haters beware, he has arrived.

The picks below resemble a change from my usual style. Only three teams who are underdogs this week (Carolina Panthers, Chicago Bears, and Cowboys), are being picked. Why this change?

My first theory, from an omniscient view of my reasoning, is that it signals a sense of boyhood optimism being lost. The acceptance of underdogs being underdogs for a reason.

The favorites are easy to like, and easy to pick. Sure, one can take the Tennessee Titans over the lowly Jacksonville Jaguars, but there are 5,000 Jaguars fans out there who believe that their team may finally win a game. But this will simply not happen.

Optimism quickly turning to pessimism usually begins to take hold around Week 6, and I seem to be right in season.

There is also a second theory for my change in strategy. This has to do with the fact that picking favorites is usually a smarter decision. This theory also does not require an explanation of prose.

Anyway, here are those optimistically pessimistic picks.

Indianapolis Colts (-3) vs. Houston Texans: Colts -3

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Tennessee Titans (-6): Titans -6

Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Ravens -3.5

Denver Broncos (-9) vs. New York Jets: Broncos -9

Detroit Lions (-2) vs. Minnesota Vikings: Lions -2

New England Patriots (-3) vs. Buffalo Bills: Patriots -3

Carolina Panthers vs. Cincinnati Bengals (-7): Panthers +7

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cleveland Browns (-2): Browns -2

Green Bay Packers (-3.5) vs. Miami Dolphins: Packers -3.5

San Diego Chargers (-7.5) vs. Oakland Raiders: Chargers -7.5

Chicago Bears vs. Atlanta Falcons (-3): Bears +3

Dallas Cowboys vs. Seattle Seahawks (-8): Cowboys +8

Washington Redskins vs. Arizona Cardinals (3.5): Cardinals -3.5

New York Giants vs. Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5): Eagles -2.5

San Francisco 49ers (-3.5) vs. St. Louis Rams: 49ers -3.5

Last Week: 7-8

Yearly Record: 35-40-1

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